US real GDP growth
Quarterly growth, annualized · BEA advance estimate
Q4 2027 median
2.0%
10th–90th percentile: −1.2% to 4.8%
Annualized growth (%)
- Forecast median
- 10th–90th percentile
| Quarter | 10th percentile | Median | 90th percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.1% | 3.2% | 5.2% |
| Q4 2026 | −0.5% | 2.0% | 4.4% |
| Q1 2027 | −0.9% | 1.9% | 4.5% |
| Q2 2027 | −1.0% | 2.0% | 4.6% |
| Q3 2027 | −1.1% | 2.0% | 4.7% |
| Q4 2027 | −1.2% | 2.0% | 4.8% |
| Q1 2028 | −1.4% | 2.0% | 4.9% |
| Q2 2028 | −1.4% | 2.0% | 5.0% |
| Q3 2028 | −1.4% | 2.0% | 5.0% |
| Q4 2028 | −1.5% | 2.0% | 5.1% |
| Q1 2029 | −1.5% | 2.0% | 5.1% |
| Q2 2029 | −1.5% | 2.0% | 5.2% |
| Q3 2029 | −1.6% | 2.0% | 5.2% |
| Q4 2029 | −1.6% | 2.0% | 5.2% |
| Q1 2030 | −1.6% | 2.0% | 5.2% |
| Q2 2030 | −1.6% | 2.0% | 5.3% |
| Q3 2030 | −1.6% | 2.0% | 5.3% |
| Q4 2030 | −1.6% | 2.0% | 5.3% |
| Q1 2031 | −1.7% | 2.0% | 5.4% |
| Q2 2031 | −1.7% | 2.0% | 5.4% |
| Q3 2031 | −1.7% | 2.0% | 5.4% |
Model reasoning
This question asks for the headline annualized growth rate in BEA's first estimate of GDP each quarter — the advance number, not whatever it gets revised to later. For the third quarter of 2026, we expect about 3.2%, with an 80% range of roughly 1.1% to 5.2%. For the fourth quarter, about 2.0% (‑0.5% to 4.4%). From 2027 onward the median settles at roughly 2.0% every quarter, with bands that widen steadily to about ‑1.7% to 5.4% by 2031.
Where things stand: Q2 2026 came in at 1.5%, unchanged in the second estimate. That headline understated the economy — private domestic final demand grew over 4%; inventories and a widening trade gap did the damage. For Q3, the trackers disagree unusually sharply. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow sits at 4.4%, with a huge inventory build and roughly 19% investment growth doing much of the work. The New York Fed's nowcast says 2.3%, and professional forecasters said 2.5% in mid-August. That gap is almost entirely the inventory and trade components — exactly where first-estimate guesswork is largest. So our Q3 median sits between the two camps, closer to the nowcast than to consensus but well short of 4.4%.
Beyond Q3, the case for lower numbers is real: inventory surges get paid back the following quarter, oil has spiked on the Iran conflict, inflation is running near 3.4%, and the Fed is debating hikes rather than cuts. Pulling the other way, payrolls beat badly in August, unemployment sits at 4.1%, and the AI capital-spending boom is now large enough to carry a meaningful chunk of growth on its own. Those forces roughly cancel, which is why Q4 lands near 2% rather than in contraction.
For the long horizon we simply anchor on estimated potential growth — the Fed's 2.0% long run, CBO's 1.8% — and let the bands do the work. The biggest open question is whether AI investment eventually shows up as genuine productivity (pushing trend toward 2.5%) or unwinds like the telecom buildout did (delivering a contraction year). We put neither in the median; both live in the tails, along with roughly a one-in-five chance any given distant quarter prints negative.
What would move this most: the September inventory and trade data, which settle the GDPNow-versus-consensus argument for Q3, and whether the Fed begins an actual hiking cycle into an energy shock — that combination is the classic recipe for a recession four to six quarters out.
Resolution criteria
Question. For each quarter, what is the annualized real GDP growth rate (percent) in the BEA advance estimate for that quarter?
Resolution rules.
- Use the headline seasonally adjusted annualized rate from the BEA "GDP (Advance Estimate)" release for the quarter.
- Ignore second and third estimates and all later revisions.
- If BEA skips or relabels the advance estimate (e.g., after a shutdown), use the first published estimate for that quarter under any name.
Resolving source. bea.gov news release.
Release timing. Q3 2026 advance: 2026-10-29. Q4 2026 advance: expected late January 2027 (2027 calendar not yet published). Subsequent quarters: roughly four weeks after quarter end.
Forecast periods. Q3 2026 through Q3 2031, every quarter (21 periods).