Archive

Replaced by the wide layer on 21 September 2026, when the level and value formats were retired. Kept for the record; no longer forecast.

Now covered byAn AI cyberattack cuts power to 10 million people for a dayThe US or China blames the other for sabotaging AI infrastructureA major power says AI runs offensive cyber operations unsupervised

Replaced by the wide layer on 21 September 2026, when the level and value formats were retired. Kept for the record; no longer forecast.

Now covered byFour-quarter US GDP growth above 5%Four-quarter US GDP growth above 10%Four-quarter US GDP growth above 30%

Replaced by the wide layer on 21 September 2026, when the level and value formats were retired. Kept for the record; no longer forecast.

Now covered byThe US labour share falls below 50%The US labour share falls below 40%

Replaced by the wide layer on 21 September 2026, when the level and value formats were retired. Kept for the record; no longer forecast.

Now covered byThe US and China name an AI capability both will not buildThe US and China agree to exchange safety evaluationsThe US and China agree to limit frontier AI trainingThe US and China sign an AI agreement with chip or datacentre verification

Replaced by the wide layer on 21 September 2026, when the level and value formats were retired. Kept for the record; no longer forecast.

Now covered byThe US requires government access to frontier models before releaseThe Defense Production Act is used to direct a lab's compute or modelsThe US or EU makes developers strictly liable for model harmsA major power bans training above a threshold

Replaced by the wide layer on 21 September 2026, when the level and value formats were retired. Kept for the record; no longer forecast.

Now covered byAn engineered pathogen kills at least 100 peopleAI is credited with stopping an engineered-pathogen attack