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A G20 country enacts a universal basic income

Will any G20 country enact a national law paying a regular cash income to all adult citizens or residents regardless of income or work?

Chance by Q4 2031

6%

Cumulative probability

0%25%50%75%100%
  • Latest forecast

Forecast history

Forecast made on 13 Oct 2026

Latest of 5 forecasts · Methodology v2.1

Model reasoning

Forecast made 13 Oct 2026 · Methodology v2.1

No major economy has ever passed a law paying regular cash to every adult regardless of income, and no qualifying bill is moving now. Every live idea, including Trump's one-time $5,000 check, Korea's rural payments in local vouchers and Japan's income-linked benefit, fails the definition. I put it at about 1.5% by end-2028 and about 5.6% by end-2031. The biggest upward shift would be Korea's government submitting a nationwide basic-income bill paid in cash.

Where things stand (13 Oct 2026)

No G20 country has a law that meets this definition, and I could not find a qualifying bill moving in any G20 legislature. The bar is low on amount (any positive sum counts) but strict on design. The law must pay cash (not vouchers) to all adults, with no income clawback, on a recurring schedule set by statute, with nationwide coverage by a fixed date. Every live proposal fails at least one of these tests.

  • South Korea is the most plausible candidate.
    • President Lee Jae-myung has championed universal basic income (UBI) for decades. His Democratic Party has a legislative majority until May 2028 and won the June 2026 local elections by a landslide. A chip-boom tax windfall is funding a new "Future Response Fund" of about 162 trillion won.
    • In June 2026 Lee told The Economist that a basic income funded from excess profits is "a very useful policy alternative." The government asked the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA) to design a basic-income model by end-2026.
    • But the 2027 pilot is a conditional "participation income" for young and middle-aged people. In May 2026 the chief of staff for policy floated a "national dividend"; the KOSPI stock index fell more than 5% intraday, the presidential office called it a personal opinion, and the Democratic Party said it had no plans for one. Polls showed 73% opposed appointing the Basic Income Party's leader as a minister, and she withdrew.
    • The 2027 budget only expands the regional rural basic income (to 35 counties, paid in local gift certificates). That would fail twice here: it excludes by region, and local currency is a restricted voucher, not cash.
  • United States.
    • Trump's $5,000 "Trump Dividend" is a one-off, depends on Republicans keeping both chambers, and Vance has framed it as for the middle class. That makes it a one-off rebate, possibly with income limits, so it would not count.
    • Democrats are favoured to win the House.
    • Sanders' AI sovereign-wealth-fund bill (about $1,000 a year) has no cosponsors. "Universal basic capital" talk from Newsom, Trump and OpenAI has produced no legislation.
  • Japan's new benefit from April 2027 (moving to a refundable tax credit in FY2029) is tied to income and work, so it would not count.
  • Germany is answering high fuel prices from the Iran war with targeted relief. The per-person "climate money" was never enacted, and the direct-payment system has bank details for only about 19% of people.
  • Others: Canada's bill S-206 only sets up a framework for an income-tested benefit. South Africa's proposed new grant is targeted. The UK minister's January remarks about UBI were only talk.

Base rate

Since at least 2000 (about 475 G20 country-years) there have been zero qualifying enactments. That includes COVID, when every universal payment was a one-off and usually income-limited. The close cases fall outside the definition:

  • not G20 members: Mongolia 2010, Iran 2010, Marshall Islands 2025;
  • subnational: Alaska's oil dividend;
  • regional: Canada's carbon rebate.

For comparison, the Metaculus community gives about 2% to a UBI in the US, UK, China or any EU country by 2030, according to a search snippet; I could not open the page. A thin Manifold copy of that question sits at about 7%.

Model

I built quarterly hazards and accumulated them in Python (1 − ∏(1 − h)). Annual hazard by year:

Period Annual hazard Main drivers
Q4 2026 ~0.05% Nothing in any pipeline
2027 ~0.55% Korean design and pilot year; US likely divided
2028 ~0.95% Korea after the April election; EU carbon pricing for fuel and heating starts; US election year
2029 ~1.5% New US administration; Lee's last full year; new German government
2030–31 ~1.3–1.4% AI matures; successor governments

The cumulative result is about 5.6% by end-2031. By source: Korea about 2%, the US about 1.5–2%, and roughly 2% spread across the other 17 members. That last share includes an AI-driven mass-unemployment scenario, which I put at about 10% likely, with roughly a 20% chance it produces a qualifying law in time.

Strongest case against my estimate

For higher: elite support is unprecedented (Lee, Musk, Amodei, Sanders, Trump's interest in giving the public a stake in AI firms). Korea has the money and the majority, and the amount threshold is trivial. For lower: even crises have produced only one-offs. Policy is moving towards ownership accounts, targeted and income-linked benefits, and participation incomes. Inflation and rate hikes from the Iran war weigh on new spending, and UBI polls badly. I land between these views. Interpretation used: local-currency or other restricted payments do not count, and the law itself must set up recurring payments.

Sources

Resolution criteria

Opened 16 Sep 2026Not yet resolved

Question. By the last day of each quarter, has any G20 country enacted a national law paying a regular cash income to all adult citizens or residents regardless of income or work?

Definitions.

  • G20 country: one of the 19 sovereign-country members at opening: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, or the United States. Membership of the European Union or African Union alone does not qualify.
  • Enacted national law: a national statute, or equivalent primary legislation with force of law, that has completed all constitutionally required enactment steps, including assent or promulgation where required. Passage by only one chamber, a bill awaiting assent, a policy announcement, an executive programme without qualifying primary legislation, and a nonbinding resolution do not count.
  • All adult citizens or residents: every person of the country's general legal age of majority or older in either (a) its citizen population living in the country or (b) its lawful ordinary-resident population. Either population suffices; citizens abroad need not be included. A uniform minimum period of residence is permitted. There may be no upper age limit or exclusions based on region, occupation, student status, disability, incarceration, household composition, or receipt of other benefits. Identity verification, application, and payment-account registration requirements are permitted; actual take-up need not be universal.
  • Regardless of income or work: every eligible adult has a positive cash entitlement without an income or wealth eligibility ceiling, required employment, prior contributions, job search, training, or community service. Means-tested supplements may coexist with the universal payment. Ordinary taxation of the payment does not disqualify it, but a benefit-specific income clawback that eliminates the payment for some adults does.
  • Regular cash income: non-repayable, unrestricted money payable on a recurring schedule at least annually, rather than a single award divided into instalments. The statute must establish ongoing recurrence or at least two scheduled payments at the specified cadence. No minimum amount, poverty-line requirement, or equal-payment requirement applies. Bank deposits and freely cash-redeemable digital balances qualify; restricted vouchers, services, loans, and nonrefundable tax credits do not.

Resolves YES if an official publication within the Resolution window establishes enactment of a law satisfying all these definitions. The law must create the payment entitlement and specify its amount or a binding method for determining a positive amount, and its payment schedule. Payments need not have begun. A future commencement date or phased introduction counts only if the legislation legally requires full qualifying coverage by a specified date, without another discretionary decision about whether to extend eligibility. A new statute amending an existing benefit into a qualifying universal entitlement counts. Neither an AI-related rationale nor an AI-related funding source is required.

Resolves NO / Exclusions.

  • No qualifying enactment is established by the quarter-end.
  • Pilots, subnational programmes, age-cohort-only benefits, means-tested benefits, one-off rebates, or authorizations that leave establishment of universal payments optional do not count.
  • A declaration of eventual universal basic income with no binding date for universal eligibility does not count. In particular, Brazil's Law 10.835 of 8 January 2004, Article 1 §1, leaves staged coverage to executive discretion; its republication alone cannot qualify. Brazil's means-tested Bolsa Família under Law 14.601/2023 does not qualify either.
  • A publication merely describing or consolidating a pre-opening enactment does not constitute a new enactment.

Resolving source. The enacting country's official national gazette, official statute repository, or national legislature's enacted-law record, including official assent or promulgation records. These are the exclusive resolving sources, narrower than Public confirmation (A2). G20 membership is fixed using the G20 South Africa membership list. Apply Resolution date (A3) and the Resolution window: resolve on publication of the official record establishing completed qualifying enactment, not on the first payment date. Once YES, subsequent repeal or nonimplementation does not reverse it.

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