{
  "question_id": "W107",
  "slug": "universal-basic-income-enacted",
  "title": "A G20 country enacts a universal basic income",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W107",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0551
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0665
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0786
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0915
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1483
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1628
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1778
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1926
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.223
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W107",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0345
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0528
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0632
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0744
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0874
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1487
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1658
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1833
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2384
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W107",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "One-off payments (e.g., the proposed $5,000 'Trump Dividend'), region- or age-limited or conditional schemes (Korea's rural basic income, youth participation income, South Africa's 18-59 BIS) and payments in restricted local currency are treated as non-qualifying per the stated definitions.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0313
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0341
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W107",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No major economy has ever passed a law paying every adult a regular, no-strings cash income. Every live proposal in 2026 is a one-off, income-limited, regional, conditional, or paid in vouchers. South Korea's government is studying basic income, and debate over job losses to artificial intelligence is growing, so the chance rises over time to about 6% by 2031. The development that would most change this is Korea moving to a nationwide cash basic income law.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0284
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0396
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0435
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0475
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0515
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0557
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W107",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No major economy has ever passed a law paying regular cash to every adult regardless of income, and no qualifying bill is moving now. Every live idea, including Trump's one-time $5,000 check, Korea's rural payments in local vouchers and Japan's income-linked benefit, fails the definition. I put it at about 1.5% by end-2028 and about 5.6% by end-2031. The biggest upward shift would be Korea's government submitting a nationwide basic-income bill paid in cash.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0331
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0426
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0458
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0524
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0558
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}