The Dow closes above 100,000

Where things stand

• The DJIA closed at 52,177.69 on 2026-10-15. It closed at 51,461.90 on the opening date (2026-09-16), and its record close is 54,349.12, set on 2026-08-05. Sources: FRED series DJIA (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DJIA) and the MeasuringWorth daily DJIA from 1896 to 2026-10-15 (https://www.measuringworth.com/datasets/DJA/), which I downloaded.
• Getting above 100,000 takes a +91.7% rise (log 0.65). Compounded, that is 13.3% a year to 2031-12-31, 16.7% a year to end-2030, 22.5% a year to end-2029 and 34% a year to end-2028.
• Closes are published the same day, so publication lag doesn't matter here. The only question is whether the index gets there.

Base rates I computed (MeasuringWorth daily series)

• I counted the share of start days from which the highest close in the next 5.21 years was more than 1.9165 times the starting level. That share is 25% for starts from 1896, 24% from 1950, and 24% for starts within 10% of the record high (from 1950).
• By horizon (starts from 1950): 0% for anything up to 1.7 years, about 1% at 2.2 years, 6% at 3.2 years, 13% at 4.2 years and 24% at 5.2 years.
• The hits bunch up in a few periods: the 1920s, the 1950s, 1981–1996, and rebounds from crash lows (2009, 2016, 2020). For start years 1997–2021 there were almost none.
• Adjusting for valuation: Shiller's CAPE is about 40.7 (shillerdata.com ie_data.xls, October 2026). In the history:
  • With CAPE above 30 (1929, 1997–2002, 2017–21), none of 90 monthly starting points hit the target.
  • With CAPE between 25 and 30, 13.5% did.
  • A regression of the log 62-month maximum on log CAPE gives roughly 5–7% at today's CAPE.

Forward-looking evidence

• Professional forecasts:
  • Vanguard's model (June 30, 2026) expects 4.2–6.2% a year total return for US stocks.
  • Goldman expects about 7% a year over ten years, and S&P 500 earnings growth of about 11% a year in 2027–28.
  • The S&P 500 forward P/E is about 19 (FactSet/Goldman).
• Option prices (CBOE delayed quotes):
  • December 2031 S&P 500 options price roughly a 9% risk-neutral chance that the S&P ends above 1.92 times today's level.
  • For the Dow, I used dividend-adjusted forward growth of about 3.75% a year and long-dated volatility of 14.5–15%. That gives about an 11% risk-neutral chance of touching the level at some point. Adding a 1–2% equity risk premium raises it to about 14–16%.
• Simulation: Lognormal and block-bootstrap models (demeaned 1950+ daily returns) assumed median log price growth of 3.5–4% a year, uncertainty of ±2.5–3%, and volatility of 14–15.6%. They give 11–16% by end-2031, under 1% by end-2028, about 3–4% by end-2029 and about 8–9% by end-2030. The forecast series is a blend of these model paths, scaled to 14.5%.

The macro picture

• Headwinds:
  • The Fed under Chair Warsh raised rates in September, and more hikes are priced in.
  • The 10-year yield is about 5.2%. September CPI was 3.7% and PPI 6.3%.
  • Oil is above $100 because of the Iran war, and September payrolls rose only 29,000.
  • Breadth is weak: about 84% of S&P stocks are in correction. Margin debt is at a record.
• Tailwinds:
  • S&P earnings are expected to rise about 35% in 2026, with consensus of about 15% for 2027.
  • AI capital spending is huge, and Alphabet joined the Dow in June 2026.
  • Trump has publicly targeted "Dow 100,000" by the end of his term.
• Dow-specific drag: being price-weighted, the Dow has lagged the S&P by about 2% a year over the last decade.

How the scenarios combine

Scenario	Probability	Chance of hitting by end-2031
Uninterrupted AI profit boom, about 13–15% a year	~1/3	~1/3
Modest growth	~1/3	8–10%
A bear market by 2028	~1/3	~3%

Combined, that is about 15%.

Strongest case for a higher number: the unconditional rate is about 24%, and the Dow has compounded about 10–11% a year over 10–17 years. If that pace continued, the probability would be about 40%. Even so, none of the five high-CAPE episodes produced a near-doubling, and valuation-based models are well below 10%. I put about 14.5% on a close above 100,000 by end-2031, with the hazard concentrated in 2030–31.

Question. By the last day of each quarter, has the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 100,000 on any trading day?

Definitions.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): S&P Dow Jones Indices’ standard U.S.-dollar price-return index, not a total-return, net-total-return, currency-converted, futures, or exchange-traded-fund series.
• Close: the official daily closing index level for a U.S. trading session, including an officially shortened session. Intraday highs and after-hours indications do not count.
• Above 100,000: strictly greater than 100,000 nominal index points, without inflation adjustment. A close of exactly 100,000 does not count. Routine constituent and divisor changes do not interrupt the series. If the index is explicitly rebased, compare values on the pre-rebasing scale in effect on 2026-09-16 using the administrator’s conversion factor.

Resolves YES if a qualifying source publishes an official DJIA daily close above 100,000 for a trading session dated 2026-09-16 or later, on or before the quarter-end. The Resolution window and Observation period conventions apply. A later official correction that first establishes a qualifying close counts on the correction’s publication date, not the trading date.

Resolves NO if no qualifying close has been published by the quarter-end. Forecasts, intraday crossings, unofficial estimates, and closing values of other Dow Jones indices do not count. A value identified by the administrator as a publication error before resolution does not count. No attribution to AI is required. Once YES, the Resolution window convention applies for all later quarter-ends.

Resolving source. S&P Dow Jones Indices’ official Dow Jones Industrial Average index page, daily closing data, or official historical data and corrections. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s FRED series DJIA, identified as “Daily, Close” and sourced from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, is an accepted republication. If sources conflict, the administrator’s official corrected value takes precedence. Use the Resolution date convention (A3): the date the qualifying closing value or correction is published, not a backdated observation date. Public confirmation convention A2 is not required for this market-statistic question.