{
  "question_id": "W194",
  "slug": "dow-above-100000",
  "title": "The Dow closes above 100,000",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W194",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000719
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01471
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.040752
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.100179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.123826
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.147982
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.17307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.198803
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.224645
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.24983
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.275039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.300133
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W194",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000421
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002519
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005512
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010484
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017905
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027726
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.040366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05668
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075546
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.097733
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.122094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.148431
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.176533
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.206178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.236343
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.266889
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.29768
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W194",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0254
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0486
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0577
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0671
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0773
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0989
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W194",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The Dow is near 51,200, so it would need to nearly double, about 13.6% a year, to close above 100,000 by the end of 2031. That has happened in about a fifth of five-year stretches historically, but never when stocks were as expensive as now. Option prices imply roughly a one-in-eight chance. I forecast about 13% by end-2031 and under 5% by end-2029. A sustained AI-driven profit boom, or an early bear market, would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0458
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0554
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0656
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0765
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0877
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0989
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1339
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W194",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The Dow is near 52,000 and would need to almost double by the end of 2031, which works out to about 13% a year. That is faster than its strong pace of the past decade and above most professional forecasts. Those forecasts expect slower gains because stocks are very expensive and interest rates are rising. What would most raise the odds is a long, uninterrupted boom in company profits from artificial intelligence, without a bear market.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.145
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}