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A country amends its constitution to name AI

Will any country with more than 5 million people adopt a constitutional amendment whose text names artificial intelligence or AI systems?

Chance by Q2 2029

51%

Cumulative probability

0%25%50%75%100%50% · Q2 2029
  • Latest forecast

Forecast history

Forecast made on 15 Oct 2026

Latest of 5 forecasts · Methodology v2.1

Model reasoning

Forecast made 15 Oct 2026 · Methodology v2.1

Greece is the main reason: its parliament has formally listed an article saying artificial intelligence must serve people as open to revision. The parliament elected in 2027 must then pass it with 180 of 300 votes, most likely between late 2027 and mid-2028. Revisions under way in Portugal, Hungary and Vietnam, and proposals in Mexico, add further chances. What would move this most is whether Greece's post-election parliament reaches 180 votes on that article.

Where things stand (15 Oct 2026)

As far as I can find, no national constitution yet names artificial intelligence. Kazakhstan's new constitution, approved by referendum in March 2026, only mentions "digital technologies". I checked the official text on akorda.kz and the word "искусственный" does not appear. I found no qualifying adoption since the 16 Sep 2026 opening date.

Greece is the main live path. New Democracy (ND), the governing party, proposed a provision for Art. 5/5A/new 5B: "Artificial intelligence must serve individual freedom and the welfare of society, so that risks are mitigated and benefits exploited." On 16 Sep 2026 the current parliament held its second and final vote on which articles may be revised. The AI provision got 161 yes, 95 no and 37 "present". No article reached 180 votes, so under Art. 110(4) the next parliament must adopt each article with 180 of 300 votes in its first session.

Evidence for the AI article:

  • The main opposition party, PASOK, says its own Art. 5B proposal "also includes artificial intelligence".
  • Greek press lists AI among the areas with the smallest party differences.
  • Greek constitutional scholars hold that a parliament dissolved because no government can be formed does not end the revision. It passes to the following parliament, so a repeat election would not kill it.

Evidence against:

  • A constitutional scholar writing on constitutionalism.gr (21 Sep 2026) calls reaching 180 votes "rather doubtful".
  • Polls (Oct 2026) put ND at about 30% of the estimated vote. That means roughly 115–130 seats, so 180 needs ND plus PASOK plus a third party.

Precedent: in 2019, only 3 of 33 provisions needing 180 passed, all of them consensus items. In 2008, only three articles were revised. Elections are expected in early May 2027. In 2019 the revising parliament voted 4.5 months after the election, and the revision was published in the Government Gazette three days after the vote. So a Greek YES would most likely land between Q4 2027 and Q2 2028.

My estimate for Greece is about 35%: 0.85 that the revision votes happen at all, times about 0.45 that the AI article reaches 180, times about 0.97 that the final wording names AI.

Other paths

  • Portugal (~13%). A constitutional revision is due to restart in 2027, with project deadlines suspended until 30 Dec 2026 and a target of summer 2027. The Liberal Initiative party wants to address AI. A think tank tied to the Socialist party proposes updating Art. 35 for AI. Approval needs two-thirds, and the final wording might say "automated decisions" instead of naming AI, which would not count.
  • Hungary (~9%). The governing Tisza party holds two-thirds of parliament and is starting a process for a new constitution with a referendum. Whether it would name AI is uncertain.
  • Mexico (~10%). There are bills to amend Art. 73 to cover "sistemas de inteligencia artificial", and the Senate's AI commission says a constitutional reform must come before a general AI law. The ruling party has the majorities to pass it, but nothing has been scheduled.
  • Vietnam (~8%). Its 2026–31 legislative plan includes a comprehensive constitutional revision, with heavy emphasis on technology.
  • South Korea (~4%). A May 2026 amendment attempt failed, but the ruling party is targeting a referendum by the first half of 2027.
  • All other countries (~15%, rising over time). These include Thailand and Turkey (possible new constitutions), Brazil, Austrian laws with constitutional-rank provisions, and Central Asia and Africa.

Reference class and model

The reference class is how new topics enter constitutions. The adoption rate for AI is still zero, even after Kazakhstan's tech-themed rewrite. Revisions that need cross-party supermajorities usually shrink to a few consensus items, and a symbolic AI clause is exactly that kind of item. I treated the paths as independent and gave each a timing profile, using a quarterly model in Python. It gives about 0.65 by end-2031; I shaded this to 0.635 because adding up many small subjective paths tends to overcount. The per-quarter chance of first adoption is about 1–3% before Q3 2027, 11–17% in Q4 2027–Q2 2028 (Greece), and about 3% per quarter afterwards.

Strongest case for NO

Constitution drafters prefer technology-neutral wording, as Kazakhstan's "digital technologies" shows. Greece's 180-vote bar in a split parliament may fail, as most 180-vote items did in 2019. And Portugal, Hungary and Vietnam may slip past 2031 or use wording like "automated decisions". I judge this risk to be already reflected in roughly a 36% chance of NO.

Sources

Resolution criteria

Opened 16 Sep 2026Not yet resolved

Question. By the last day of each quarter, has any country with more than 5 million people adopted a constitutional amendment whose text names artificial intelligence or AI systems?

Definitions.

  • Country: a sovereign state that is a UN member or UN observer state, or Taiwan, at the time of adoption. Subnational jurisdictions and dependent territories do not count.
  • More than 5 million people: strictly more than 5,000,000 total inhabitants in the adoption year, using the UN DESA Population Division’s World Population Prospects series “Total population as of 1 July,” both sexes and all ages. Use the latest edition available when adoption is first officially confirmed, and its medium-variant projection where an estimate is unavailable. Convert figures reported in thousands to persons. This is a country-size eligibility test, not a population-change event.
  • Constitutional amendment: a formally adopted addition, deletion, or revision to the national constitution, including amendments to a Basic Law or another instrument formally possessing constitutional rank. A wholesale replacement constitution counts only if adopted through the existing constitution’s amendment or revision procedure. An ordinary statute does not count merely because it concerns constitutional rights or is described as constitutionally important.
  • Adopt: complete all legally required approvals for final adoption, including required legislative votes, referendum ratification, assent, promulgation, or certification. A future effective date does not prevent qualification once adoption is final. An initial parliamentary vote authorizing a later legislature to formulate or approve an amendment is not final adoption.
  • Names artificial intelligence or AI systems: the adopted amendment’s legal text explicitly contains “artificial intelligence,” “AI systems,” or an equivalent expression in an official language. An abbreviation counts only where the legal text defines it or unambiguously uses it to mean artificial intelligence. References to generative artificial intelligence or artificial general intelligence count. References only to algorithms, automation, robots, digital technology, or machine learning do not. The reference may appear in an adopted preamble, article, schedule, or transitional provision; it need not create an enforceable right or obligation. Explanatory memoranda, legislative debate, press releases, and editorial annotations are not amendment text.

Resolves YES if a qualifying official publication establishes final adoption and supplies or identifies the adopted text containing the qualifying reference, and the country meets the population threshold. Provisions protecting human control, conferring or denying rights, restricting AI, or promoting AI all count. An amendment need not concern AI primarily.

Resolves NO if no such confirmation exists by the quarter-end. Proposals, draft constitutions, pending amendments, non-final votes, ordinary AI legislation, judicial interpretations without textual constitutional amendment, and amendments to state or provincial constitutions are excluded. Later repeal or invalidation does not reverse a previously qualifying YES.

Resolving source. The adopting country’s official gazette, official legislation database, parliament, head-of-state promulgation record, constitutional court, or electoral authority’s official certification, as applicable, must establish final adoption and the authoritative text. The Constitute Project may corroborate wording or provide a translation, but its inclusion of a text alone does not establish final adoption or the publication date; the official-language legal text controls any conflict. Population eligibility uses World Population Prospects as specified above. These are the question’s narrower resolving sources, rather than the general Public confirmation convention A2. Apply the Resolution window and Resolution date convention A3: resolve on the publication date of the qualifying official confirmation, not the vote or effective date. The Observation period convention does not apply to the ancillary country-size test.

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