{
  "question_id": "W74",
  "slug": "constitution-amended-to-name-ai",
  "title": "A country amends its constitution to name AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W74",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1949
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2915
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4474
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5579
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6442
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6656
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6823
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6982
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7516
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7627
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7734
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7836
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7934
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8027
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W74",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0828
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2408
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5773
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6709
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.756
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7658
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7752
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7842
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7928
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.809
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8167
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W74",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Final adoption means the last required step (e.g., Greek revisionary-parliament resolution, Mexican DOF decree after state ratification, Brazilian promulgated Emenda, Portuguese Lei Constitucional, Hungarian new Fundamental Law adopted by 2/3 under Art. S) evidenced by official publication on/after 2026-09-16; Greece's 16 Sep 2026 first-stage vote does not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.39
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.43
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.478
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.52
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.54
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.575
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.59
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.605
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.616
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.627
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.637
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W74",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I estimate about a 60% chance that by the end of 2031 a country of more than 5 million people adopts a constitutional amendment that names artificial intelligence. Several formal proposals already name it, in Greece, Mexico, Brazil, Portugal and Switzerland, but none is close to final adoption, so the near-term chance is low. The development that would most change this forecast is whether Greece's parliament elected in 2027 finds the 180 votes needed to adopt its AI article.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.363
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.397
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.426
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.447
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.468
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.484
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.516
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.531
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.546
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.561
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.575
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.589
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.603
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.616
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W74",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Greece is the main reason: its parliament has formally listed an article saying artificial intelligence must serve people as open to revision. The parliament elected in 2027 must then pass it with 180 of 300 votes, most likely between late 2027 and mid-2028. Revisions under way in Portugal, Hungary and Vietnam, and proposals in Mexico, add further chances. What would move this most is whether Greece's post-election parliament reaches 180 votes on that article.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.17
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.31
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.43
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.46
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.48
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.495
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.51
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.525
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.54
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.553
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.566
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.578
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.59
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.612
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.623
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.635
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}