10 million patent applications are filed worldwide in a year
Will WIPO report at least 10 million patent applications filed worldwide in a calendar year?
Chance by Q4 2031
<1%
Cumulative probability
- Latest forecast
| Year | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | <1% | |||
| 2027 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 2028 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 2029 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 2030 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 2031 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Model reasoning
The world filed about 3.7 million patent applications in 2024. Reaching 10 million in any year from 2026 to 2030 would mean filings growing about 18–64% a year, while the fastest growth since 2010 was about 9%. China, which files about half the total, is cracking down on low-quality filings rather than expanding them. A sudden, artificial-intelligence-driven explosion in filings at China's or the US patent office would most change this forecast.
Where things stand
The latest figure in the named series (WIPO's World Intellectual Property Indicators 2025, figure A1, released 12 November 2025) puts worldwide patent applications at 3,725,000 in 2024, up from 3,552,300 in 2023 (+4.9%). That 4.9% was the fastest growth since 2018. The threshold of 10,000,000 is 2.7 times the current level.
Only years from 2026 onward count. WIPI comes out each November, about 11 months after the year it covers:
- WIPI 2026 (Nov 2026) covers 2025, which is not eligible.
- WIPI 2027 covers 2026.
- WIPI 2031 (Nov 2031) covers 2030, which is the last year that can be reported inside the window.
So the probability can only rise at the Q4 quarter-ends from 2027 to 2031. Estimates for years that have not yet ended are excluded, so nothing can qualify in 2026.
What I computed (from the WIPI 2025 PDF, figure A1)
Growth needed from the 2024 level of 3.725M to reach 10M:
| Year | Growth needed each year |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 64% |
| 2027 | 39% |
| 2028 | 28% |
| 2029 | 22% |
| 2030 | 18% |
Historical growth. The annual growth rates shown in figure A1 for 2010–2024 have a maximum of 9.2% (2012) and an average of about 5%. Even 9.2% a year sustained to 2030 gives only about 6.3M. Over 2010–2024 the world total rose just 1.9-fold in 14 years.
Most extreme historical analogue. China's patent office grew about 23% a year from 2010 to 2016 (391k to 1.34M), during its subsidy-driven boom. If China repeated that from 2024 to 2030 while the rest of the world grew 3% a year, the total would be about 8.5M, which still falls short.
Reference class. WIPO's history contains no case of the world total growing 2.6 times or more within six years. The base rate is effectively zero.
The specific situation
China files about 48% of the world total, and the trend there is the opposite of a boom. The patent office is cracking down on "abnormal" applications, filing subsidies are being phased out, and examiners are setting a higher bar for inventiveness. Invention patent grants fell 7% in 2025, to 972,000 (IAM, 24 June 2026; CNIPA/State Council press briefing, January 2026).
US patent office data for 2026 show utility grants flat at about 320k (Patently-O, September 2026). I found no report of a filing surge at any major office in 2026.
Paths to YES and the strongest case against my estimate
The only realistic path is an unprecedented AI-driven explosion in filings: cheap automated drafting combined with low filing fees, especially in China, adding roughly 6 million applications a year by 2029–2030. There are early signs that AI enables mass filing. WIPO's July 2026 generative-AI patent report notes that SoftBank produced almost all of its roughly 3,000 generative-AI patent families in 2024–2025.
But that is tiny relative to a gap of millions. China's rules already classify computer-generated random inventions as abnormal applications, and the reporting lag means any explosion would need to be under way by about 2029.
Changes in how WIPO counts are ruled out by the question: utility models (3.25M in 2024), design applications and multiplying regional filings by member states are all excluded. I keep a small floor for this tail and for errors in resolution, building to about 0.6% by the end of 2031.
Sources
- WIPI 2025 PDF, key numbers and figure A1: https://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo-pub-941-17-2025-en-world-intellectual-property-indicators-2025.pdf (Nov 2025)
- WIPO patents highlights: https://www.wipo.int/web-publications/world-intellectual-property-indicators-2025-highlights/en/patents-highlights.html (12 Nov 2025)
- IAM on China's filing trends: https://www.iam-media.com/article/overview-of-current-ip-filing-and-enforcement-trends-in-china (24 Jun 2026)
- CNIPA 2025 statistics: https://www.cnipa.gov.cn/art/2026/1/30/art_55_203869.html (Jan 2026)
- IPWatchdog on WIPO's generative-AI patent report: https://ipwatchdog.com/2026/07/15/china-figures-prominently-in-wipo-report-showing-generative-ai-patent-activity-tripling-in-past-two-years/ (15 Jul 2026)
Resolution criteria
Question. By the last day of each quarter, has WIPO reported at least 10 million patent applications filed worldwide in a calendar year?
Definitions.
- WIPO: the World Intellectual Property Organization.
- Patent applications filed worldwide: WIPO’s annual worldwide total for invention-patent applications, comprising resident and non-resident applications received by national and regional patent offices. Use the series presented in World Intellectual Property Indicators 2025, figure A1, “Trend in patent applications worldwide,” and its successors. This is an application count, not a count of unique inventions or patent families. Regional-office filings are counted once, not multiplied by the number of member states. Direct filings and PCT national-phase entries count as included in this series; international-phase PCT applications are not added separately.
- Calendar year: January 1 through December 31. The Observation period convention applies: the year must end after the opening date, so 2026 is the earliest eligible year.
- At least 10 million: a reported total of 10,000,000 or greater. Use the most precise numerical total supplied in the qualifying release or its accompanying data, rather than rounding a lower number up to the threshold. If only rounded text is available, it must unambiguously establish the threshold; “about 10 million” alone is insufficient.
Resolves YES if WIPO publishes a qualifying worldwide annual total at or above the threshold within the Resolution window. WIPO estimates and provisional figures for a completed calendar year count, as do revisions for eligible years. No attribution to AI is required. A later downward revision does not reverse a YES under the Resolution window convention.
Resolves NO if no qualifying report has been published by the quarter-end. Exclude projections for unfinished or future years, multi-year cumulative totals, patent grants, patents in force, pending applications, patent-family counts, utility-model applications, design applications, and totals for all intellectual-property rights combined. A publication repeating or revising only figures for 2025 or earlier does not qualify.
Resolving source. WIPO publications only: the annual World Intellectual Property Indicators, figure A1 or its successor; the corresponding worldwide total in WIPO’s IP Statistics Data Center; or an official WIPO statistical publication, highlights page, or news release explicitly reporting the same series. Official numerical tables take precedence over rounded narrative summaries in the same release. For a database update, its public release date must be documented. This is a narrower source rule than Public confirmation (A2); use the Resolution date convention (A3).