{
  "question_id": "W231",
  "slug": "10-million-patent-applications",
  "title": "10 million patent applications are filed worldwide in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W231",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001729
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001799
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008684
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008783
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008982
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02559
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.030949
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W231",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001629
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001749
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007386
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007684
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009866
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024718
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025694
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031046
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W231",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counted only WIPO's worldwide invention-patent application total (WIPI fig. A1 series and successors) for completed data years 2026 onward; utility models, equivalent counts and earlier years excluded, so the first eligible release is WIPI 2027 (~Nov 2027).",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00335
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W231",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The world filed about 3.7 million patent applications in 2024. Reaching 10 million in any year from 2026 to 2030 would mean filings growing about 18–64% a year, while the fastest growth since 2010 was about 9%. China, which files about half the total, is cracking down on low-quality filings rather than expanding them. A sudden, artificial-intelligence-driven explosion in filings at China's or the US patent office would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}