{
  "question_id": "W92",
  "slug": "world-leader-calls-for-ai-pause",
  "title": "A G7 leader or China's leadership calls for a frontier AI pause",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W92",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0886
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2997
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3747
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.461
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4934
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5404
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.561
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5852
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6532
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.667
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W92",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0774
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2778
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3888
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4742
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.511
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5428
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5725
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6263
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6487
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6896
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7538
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W92",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "None of the eligible leaders has called for a pause. They all favour oversight, standards or slower \"pacing\" instead, and the American and Chinese leaders openly reject even slowing down. But fear of AI is high, many voters back a pause, and the leaders in office will change over five years, so I put the chance near one in three by 2031. A serious AI disaster would raise it most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.17
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.23
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.32
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.331
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W92",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "None of the leaders covered has called for a pause. Even after rogue AI agents hacked government systems and OpenAI stopped training its top models, they have asked only for standards and oversight, and the US president firmly rejects slowing down. The chance grows over five years because serious incidents could happen, and a new US president arrives in 2029 as leading Democrats increasingly back a pause. A major AI-caused disaster would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.351
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.415
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.429
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.456
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}