{
  "question_id": "W166",
  "slug": "world-gdp-growth-7-percent",
  "title": "World GDP grows 7% in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W166",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005989
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006784
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018671
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019652
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.020632
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038261
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046917
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048823
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051676
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.080126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093924
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.098455
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W166",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002702
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011884
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014862
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015456
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01605
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039993
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042617
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087541
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.089974
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W166",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "The January WEO Update's estimate for the just-completed year (e.g., Jan 2027 for 2026) is treated as the first eligible qualifying figure; current-year projections in October WEOs do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0265
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W166",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The International Monetary Fund's world growth figure has never reached 7% in 46 years; the peak was 6.7%, in the post-pandemic rebound. With about 3% expected for 2026 and 3.4% for 2027, reaching 7% by 2030 would need a crash worse than the pandemic and a sharp rebound, or an unprecedented artificial-intelligence boom across America, China and Europe. Hard evidence of artificial intelligence sharply lifting national growth would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0246
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W166",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The world economy has never grown 7% in a year in IMF records back to 1980; the record is 6.7%, in the 2021 rebound after COVID. The IMF now expects about 3.1–3.4% a year through 2031. A yes needs either an artificial-intelligence-driven boom across the whole world by 2029–2030, or a crash bigger than COVID followed by a sharp recovery. I put the chance at about 2% by end-2031. A sudden jump in growth in the US and China would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00408
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00955
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02298
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}