{
  "question_id": "W167",
  "slug": "world-gdp-growth-10-percent",
  "title": "World GDP grows 10% in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W167",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00579
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007579
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007778
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015716
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018668
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01965
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038691
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039652
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W167",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00555
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006545
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018434
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.020396
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.040872
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04279
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W167",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Estimates of a just-ended year in the January WEO Update count, so only 2026–2030 can qualify by 2031-12-31, and 2026 (tracking ~3%) is effectively ruled out.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0304
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W167",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "World growth has never come close to 10% in the IMF's records; the highest was 6.7% in the 2021 rebound. The IMF expects about 3% a year through 2031. A yes would need artificial intelligence to transform the whole world economy by 2030, or a huge crash followed by a sharp rebound, so I put the chance at about 1%. Hard evidence that AI was multiplying growth in both the US and China would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W167",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The IMF's own figures show world growth near 3% every year through 2031, and growth of 10% or more has never been recorded; even the 2021 pandemic rebound reached only 6.7%. A yes would almost certainly need superhuman AI by about 2028 that transforms production across the US, China and other large economies by 2030, which most economists consider very unlikely. Clear evidence of an imminent AI-driven industrial boom would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0239
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}