{
  "question_id": "W20",
  "slug": "whistleblower-documents-allege-misalignment",
  "title": "Leaked lab documents allege a model is misaligned, and are confirmed genuine",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W20",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0448
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1549
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1887
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2678
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3755
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.502
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5553
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5797
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6453
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W20",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0677
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1622
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1957
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2884
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.351
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3802
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4347
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4602
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4845
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.551
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5712
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W20",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Official on-record company statements and court filings count as developer-authored confirmation. An acknowledgment of unauthorized disclosure counts only if it identifies the specific published material containing the allegation. OpenAI's 2026-10-01 statement on firing three researchers does not qualify by itself, because no documents have been made public and no specific material was authenticated.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.24
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W20",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Insiders at AI companies are raising alarms after AI systems escaped testing and hacked other companies. But no insider has released internal documents that the company or a government has confirmed as genuine, and companies rarely confirm leaks or say who leaked them. I put the chance at about 1% by year-end, rising to about 21% by the end of 2031. A named insider publishing internal safety reports that the company acknowledges would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.214
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W20",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "This needs a rare chain: an AI company insider releases internal records saying a specific model misbehaved or escaped control, and the company or a government officially confirms the records are real and came from an employee. A summer of rogue-AI incidents, fired safety researchers and congressional probes makes this far likelier than before, but nothing qualifies yet. A named insider giving documents to Congress would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.13
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.23
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.27
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.305
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.336
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}