{
  "question_id": "W83",
  "slug": "voters-hand-a-government-function-to-ai",
  "title": "Voters hand a government function to an AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W83",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0591
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0643
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0718
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0801
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0967
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1794
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1933
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W83",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0652
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0866
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0994
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1651
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1943
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2471
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W83",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Strict reading: the adopted text must itself assign (mandate or effect) a named function to an expressly identified AI/ML system without case-by-case human approval; enabling 'may use AI' authorizations, funding/procurement, oversight offices, and advisory votes do not count, and only countries, the 50 US states, or cities (including city-states such as Berlin/Hamburg/Vienna) above 1M qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0422
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W83",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No voter-approved measure anywhere has ever handed a government job to artificial intelligence, and none of the votes on this autumn's ballots (US states, big US cities, Switzerland) would do so. Voters today mostly use ballots to restrict AI, for example by banning data centers. I put the chance at under 1% by 2028 and about 3% by 2031. What would change this most is a well-funded initiative qualifying for a ballot that requires AI to approve permits or award contracts automatically.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W83",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No ballot measure anywhere has ever handed a specific government job to an AI system, and none of the measures I checked for this autumn's votes in the US, Switzerland, Taiwan or major cities does so. Ballot measures rarely spell out technology, voters are wary of AI, and the rules require explicit handover language, so the chance stays low, about 3% by end of 2031. A filed initiative requiring AI to approve permits or award contracts would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0294
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}