{
  "question_id": "W174",
  "slug": "us-unemployment-above-7",
  "title": "US unemployment exceeds 7%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W174",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0501
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0729
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0988
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1539
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1818
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2373
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3386
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3617
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3841
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4465
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W174",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0578
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1638
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2454
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2831
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.353
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3853
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4994
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5708
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W174",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.332
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W174",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of unemployment going above 7% by the end of 2031 at about one in three, and below 2% before 2028. It is 4.2% now and would need to rise about three points. That has usually taken a fairly deep recession, which comes roughly once a decade, and only about half of recessions push it that high. The oil shock, Fed rate hikes and possible AI job losses add some risk. A recession starting in 2027 would most raise this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.14
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.29
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.329
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W174",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Unemployment is 4.2% today, so getting above 7% takes a rise of about three points. In the past that has taken a recession, and only about half of recessions push unemployment up that far. Recessions have come every six to ten years, and today's risks are high: an oil shock from the Iran war, Federal Reserve rate hikes, and a possible end to the AI investment boom. That puts the odds near 37% by end-2031 and under 5% through 2027. A recession starting would raise the odds most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.34
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.357
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.374
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}