{
  "question_id": "W176",
  "slug": "us-unemployment-above-25",
  "title": "US unemployment exceeds 25%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W176",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003894
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006581
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00837
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012827
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021685
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037438
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W176",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002697
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003694
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004691
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005686
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009659
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013617
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019526
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022468
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0254
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037049
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W176",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "America's unemployment rate is 4.2% and has never gone above 14.8% since the official series began in 1948. Even the worst year of the Great Depression averaged 24.9%. Topping 25% within five years would take a shock far larger than the 2020 pandemic, such as extremely fast job losses from artificial intelligence or a much deadlier outbreak, so I put the chance just under 1%. Clear evidence of millions of jobs vanishing quickly would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00395
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00454
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00515
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00577
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00639
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00762
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00823
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00885
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W176",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "US unemployment is 4.2%. It has never exceeded 14.8% since records began in 1948, so passing 25% would take a shock far larger than COVID. Even the most extreme expert scenarios for AI job losses top out around 12–20% by 2030. I put the chance at about 1% by the end of 2031, rising slowly over time. A pandemic with nationwide shutdowns, or AI replacing jobs much faster than expected, would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00382
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00434
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00671
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00737
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00807
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00879
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00954
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}