{
  "question_id": "W175",
  "slug": "us-unemployment-above-10",
  "title": "US unemployment exceeds 10%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W175",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0727
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0885
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1575
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2539
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2733
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2922
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W175",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0539
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0775
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1624
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1876
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2356
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2554
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2748
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2937
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.312
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3643
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W175",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Any BLS-published (initial or revised) seasonally adjusted U-3 value strictly above 10.0% for an observation month from September 2026 onward, published by the quarter-end; the last observation month that can fall inside the window is November 2031 (released early December 2031).",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.183
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W175",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of a monthly US jobless rate above 10% at about 14% by the end of 2031, and near zero before late 2027. The rate is 4.2% and layoffs are near record lows. Getting past 10% would need a shock bigger than the 2008 financial crisis, a pandemic-style shutdown, or very fast job losses from AI. Clear signs of AI-driven layoffs spreading beyond tech, or a financial crash, would raise my estimate the most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.143
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}