{
  "question_id": "W60",
  "slug": "us-takes-stake-in-a-lab",
  "title": "The US government takes a stake or board seat in a frontier lab",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W60",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A permitted publication dated on or after September 16, 2026 can establish an earlier completed acquisition, including forfeited shares legally vested in the United States; pre-opening publications and mere government custody do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2917
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3988
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4404
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4709
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4998
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5529
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.574
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5941
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6655
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6813
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6963
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7373
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W60",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1841
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3578
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4594
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5721
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5978
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6659
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6843
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7469
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7596
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7716
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W60",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only completed or effective federal interests confirmed by a company filing or an official US-government document dated on or after 2026-09-16 count; interests in controlling parents (Alphabet, Meta, SpaceX for xAI, the OpenAI Foundation or OpenAI Group) count; donations of AI shares into individual Trump Accounts or diversified funds, and officials serving on boards in a personal capacity (e.g., Christiano), do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.254
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.27
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.357
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W60",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The President says he \"might\" take Intel-style government stakes in OpenAI and Anthropic, and OpenAI has offered the government five percent. But after more than a year of talks nothing is agreed, senior officials are split or opposed, and the favored alternative, stock gifts into children's Trump Accounts, would not count. I estimate about 4% by end-2026, rising to about 37% by end-2031. A completed OpenAI share transfer to a federal fund would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.263
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.29
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.33
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.343
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.368
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W60",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "OpenAI has been offering Washington roughly a 5% stake since 2025, and the President has said \"I might\" take stakes in AI labs. But after 18 months there is still no deal, other AI companies are cold to the idea, and the administration has steered \"public stake\" efforts toward children's savings accounts, which would not count. I put the chance near 3% by end-2026 and about 40% by 2031. A signed OpenAI share donation to a federal fund would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.25
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.281
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.312
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.342
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.356
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.37
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.398
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}