{
  "question_id": "W317",
  "slug": "us-takes-new-stake-in-a-lab",
  "title": "The US government takes a new stake or board seat in a frontier lab",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W317",
      "forecast_date": "2026-11-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-11-03",
      "method": "wide-v3.1",
      "opened": "2026-11-03",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The federal government holds no stake or board seat in a leading artificial intelligence company that would count here. President Trump says he might take one and OpenAI has offered 5% of itself, but after more than a year of talks there are no terms, and share gifts are going into children's investment accounts, which don't count. I estimate about 7% by end-2027 and 26% by end-2031. OpenAI actually handing shares to a federal fund would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.24
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.265
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W317",
      "forecast_date": "2026-11-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-11-10",
      "method": "wide-v3.1",
      "opened": "2026-11-03",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The federal government holds no qualifying stake or board seat in any leading artificial intelligence company, and nothing has been agreed since the question opened. President Trump has floated stakes and OpenAI has offered shares, but recent share gifts went into children's accounts, which don't count, and the incoming Democratic Congress plans to investigate such deals. I estimate about 5% by end-2027 and 24% by end-2031. A federal fund receiving a lab's shares would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0428
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0543
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0647
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0741
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0833
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0916
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0988
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1465
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1593
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1719
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1844
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1974
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2353
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}