{
  "question_id": "W273",
  "slug": "us-suicide-rate-reaches-17",
  "title": "The US suicide rate reaches 17 per 100,000",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W273",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001599
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004791
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005587
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00857
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011743
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012731
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.020127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026496
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031357
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042981
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056379
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W273",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002996
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004791
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007974
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009462
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013919
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019836
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021796
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024731
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033508
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045106
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W273",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only a completed calendar year (2026 or later) counts; partial-year WONDER figures labeled 'provisional and partial' do not, so in practice only 2027-2030 rates (published mid-2028 to 2031) can qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W273",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The US suicide rate has stayed between 13.5 and 14.2 per 100,000 every year since 2017. It was 13.7 in 2024, and early 2025 figures show no change. Reaching 17.0 would take a jump of about 24% within a few years. That is larger than the rise during the Great Depression, so I put the chance at under 1%. What would most change this is a sudden collapse in jobs on the scale of the Great Depression starting around 2027–2028.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}