{
  "question_id": "W219",
  "slug": "us-special-zone-for-robot-industry",
  "title": "The US creates a permitting-free zone for robot or AI-run industry",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W219",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A single identified industrial site can qualify without being called a zone, but routine application of a nationwide categorical exclusion is not itself creation of a zone-specific exemption.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0539
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0728
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0932
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1721
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1845
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1976
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2254
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2402
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2553
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3201
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W219",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0463
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0653
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0859
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1739
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1888
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1985
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2531
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2658
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2927
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3069
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W219",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only geographic zones (federal sites, named parcels or mapped areas) with an effective, zone-specific federal permit or NEPA exemption that expressly names robot manufacturing or AI-managed industry count; nationwide exemptions, data-center-only measures and directives to study or identify sites do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W219",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 0.3% by the end of 2026, rising to roughly 11% by the end of 2031. The United States has never created a manufacturing zone exempt from federal environmental rules. Robot policy is running on import bans, tariffs and defense spending, and no pending bill or order includes such a zone. The development that would most raise the odds is an executive order that names federal sites for robot factories and exempts them from environmental review.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W219",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of a qualifying US zone at about 7% by the end of 2031, and under 1% this year. Nothing like it has been proposed: the long-delayed robotics strategy is about purchasing and restrictions on China, and federal permit-waiver zones for a private manufacturing industry have essentially no precedent. The development that would most raise this is a robotics or \"freedom city\" order that names federal sites for robot factories and exempts them from environmental review.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}