{
  "question_id": "W115",
  "slug": "us-says-china-has-caught-up",
  "title": "US intelligence says China has matched the US in frontier AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W115",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
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        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0689
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          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
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          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1031
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          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1174
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          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1792
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.208
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2206
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          "p_yes": 0.2378
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          "p_yes": 0.3026
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          "p_yes": 0.3305
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          "p_yes": 0.3439
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3603
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4709
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5427
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5528
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W115",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0982
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1863
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.32
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3536
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4376
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4516
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4955
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5229
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W115",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only an explicit overall parity/superiority judgment covering the leading US systems (including restricted-access models) counts; statements that China matches publicly available US models, has 'near-parity', or has 'narrowed/closed much of the gap' are treated as non-qualifying.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W115",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "An official U.S. intelligence statement that China has matched or passed America in advanced AI is unlikely soon. Chinese models trail by roughly four to seven months, and current agencies and the White House insist America leads. The chance rises after 2029, when a new administration could publish more candid assessments. The development that would most raise this forecast is China clearly catching up, for example because U.S. labs pause.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0456
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0494
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0532
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0665
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0707
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0744
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0781
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0951
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0987
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1023
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W115",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 12% over five years. US spy agencies' latest public threat report says America leads in AI and calls China only the strongest competitor. The government's own testers still put Chinese models about four months behind, and political leaders in both parties prefer to say America is ahead. What would most change this is Chinese models clearly and lastingly matching the best American systems, for example if overall AI progress stalls and China catches up.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}