{
  "question_id": "W116",
  "slug": "us-sanctions-a-chinese-lab",
  "title": "The US Treasury sanctions a leading Chinese AI lab",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W116",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0824
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1543
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1882
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2479
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2742
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2996
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3411
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3575
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3736
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3892
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4481
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4619
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4753
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4884
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W116",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0898
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1353
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1742
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2429
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2732
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3503
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3887
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.407
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4363
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4504
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4641
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4775
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4906
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5033
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W116",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.118
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W116",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 10% by the end of 2031. No US administration has ever put a major Chinese technology company on Treasury's main sanctions blacklist. President Trump is prioritizing a truce and summits with Xi, and even held back a milder trade blacklisting of DeepSeek. Officials have threatened sanctions over Chinese firms copying American AI models, so the risk rises over time, especially after 2029. A collapse of US–China relations would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W116",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Washington has never put a major Chinese tech company on Treasury's main sanctions blacklist, and it is holding back even a lighter export blacklist for DeepSeek to protect a trade truce. Officials have openly threatened sanctions over Chinese labs copying American AI models, so the chance is not negligible. I put it at about 10% over five years. A collapse of the truce, or a new law requiring sanctions on these labs, would raise it most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0345
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0494
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0542
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0584
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0627
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0711
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0789
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0827
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0866
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0902
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0939
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0975
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1011
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}