{
  "question_id": "W57",
  "slug": "us-requires-pre-release-model-access",
  "title": "The US requires government access to frontier models before release",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W57",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0725
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1622
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2665
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2959
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3381
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3878
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4619
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5555
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.58
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6289
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6686
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W57",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0755
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1612
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2846
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3578
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4594
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5424
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5722
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.624
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6465
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6678
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6877
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7064
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W57",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No US law, regulation or presidential order yet requires AI companies to let the government test their most powerful models before release. President Trump prefers voluntary deals and is unlikely to sign such a mandate before 2029. Momentum is building, though: Democrats look likely to win Congress and possibly the presidency, and leading labs and lawmakers back pre-release government testing. A major AI-caused disaster would most change this forecast, pushing it sharply higher and sooner.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.14
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.356
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.379
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.396
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.428
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.443
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W57",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The government already reviews top AI models before release, but only voluntarily. The White House and key Republican senators oppose making it mandatory, and bills that would require it are stalled, so a binding rule is unlikely before 2029 (about 18%). Likely Democratic gains, starting with Congress in 2027, and fast-rising AI risks lift the five-year chance to about 42%. A major AI-caused disaster, or Trump backing a bill, would raise this sharply.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.23
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.32
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.407
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.423
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}