{
  "question_id": "W299",
  "slug": "us-productivity-growth-below-zero",
  "title": "Four-quarter US productivity growth falls below zero",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W299",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1553
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1975
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2376
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2757
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.312
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3758
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4591
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4835
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5289
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5478
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5659
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5832
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5999
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W299",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0591
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0968
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1762
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2487
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2825
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3456
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3751
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.43
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4788
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.501
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5573
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5739
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W299",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Any BLS Productivity and Costs publication (Table 2, Table A1 or release text, including revisions) dated on or after 2026-09-16 that shows a strictly negative four-quarter nonfarm business productivity rate for an observation quarter of 2026Q3 or later counts; publication date governs timing.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.357
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.426
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.456
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.483
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.508
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.532
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.554
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.574
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.594
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W299",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "US worker productivity is growing about 2% a year with strong output, so a year-over-year decline is very unlikely in the next few releases. Over five years, though, slowdowns and frequent data revisions have often produced at least one negative reading, so the chance rises to about 45% by the end of 2031. A recession in 2027–28, from oil prices, Fed rate hikes or a bust in AI investment, would raise the odds the most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.319
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.357
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.408
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.424
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.438
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.451
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W299",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Year-over-year productivity growth is about 2 percent and rising, and third-quarter 2026 output looks strong while hiring is weak. That makes a negative reading over the next year very unlikely. Over five years, though, history shows such readings appear in most five-year windows, including after revisions, though less often when productivity is growing as fast as it is now. A recession starting in 2027–2029 would most raise the odds.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.17
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.27
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.411
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.428
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}