{
  "question_id": "W168",
  "slug": "us-productivity-growth-above-5-percent",
  "title": "Four-quarter US productivity growth above 5%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W168",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0415
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0654
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0916
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2664
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2973
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3584
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3879
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4447
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4719
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4983
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W168",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0569
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0833
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1685
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1984
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2289
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2597
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2916
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3552
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3868
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4793
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5089
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W168",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counts any BLS publication (preliminary, revised, or later historical revision in Table 2 or the major-sector xlsx) published by the quarter-end that shows nonfarm business four-quarter labor productivity growth of 5.1% or more for any quarter from Q3 2026 onward.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.324
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W168",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Productivity growth over four quarters has topped 5% mainly in the year or two after recessions (2002, 2009–10, 2020–21); it is now about 2%. A yes mostly needs a recession around 2027–2029 followed by the usual rebound, or a far bigger boom from artificial intelligence than seen so far. I estimate about 45% by the end of 2031, and close to zero through 2027. A recession beginning in 2027 would raise the odds most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.13
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.289
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.319
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.373
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.424
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.447
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}