{
  "question_id": "W169",
  "slug": "us-productivity-growth-above-10-percent",
  "title": "Four-quarter US productivity growth above 10%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W169",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004691
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006682
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019533
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023945
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028825
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039962
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052879
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059982
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067502
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W169",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006483
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032819
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.040073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0779
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.089427
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.101719
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W169",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "American worker productivity has never grown more than about 7% in a year since records began in 1948, and the latest reading is 2.2%. Topping 10% by 2031 would take an unprecedented shock, most plausibly an extremely fast artificial intelligence transformation of the economy, which most economists think unlikely this soon. The development that would most change this forecast is clear evidence of machines rapidly replacing large numbers of workers while output keeps growing.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0465
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W169",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Since records began in 1948, official American figures have never shown output per hour of work rising more than about 7% in a year, and the latest reading is about 2%. Topping 10% by 2031 would almost certainly need an unprecedented surge in automation driven by artificial intelligence, which most economists consider unlikely this soon. What would most raise this forecast is a rapid wave of office-job automation: working hours falling while output keeps growing strongly.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0378
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0468
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}