{
  "question_id": "W104",
  "slug": "us-pays-workers-displaced-by-ai",
  "title": "The US enacts cash payments for workers displaced by AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W104",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An enacted reauthorization that explicitly includes automation-caused layoffs in eligibility for an existing, funded needs-related cash-payment program can qualify even if it does not create a new benefit or increase the payment amount.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0687
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1763
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2646
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3926
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4902
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.531
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5521
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5745
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5979
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.626
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.641
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6589
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6777
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W104",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An enacted amendment explicitly bringing automation-displaced workers into an already-funded statutory program with needs-related cash payments can qualify, but generic training funding or an unrelated mention of AI cannot.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0609
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0797
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1386
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1773
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2646
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3436
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3797
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4721
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4959
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5522
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5903
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6561
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W104",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A law that amends an existing cash-stipend program (e.g., WIOA needs-related payments for 'dislocated workers') so its eligibility provisions explicitly include layoffs due to automation/AI, with funding enacted, is treated as potentially qualifying but discounted (~50%) for resolver uncertainty; pure studies, job-creation wages, and AI-neutral 'dividends' are not counted.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.238
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W104",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No such law exists yet. The many bills on AI and workers are stuck in committee, and none of this year's must-pass bills contains such provisions, so near-term chances are very low. Odds rise after 2028: Democrats are favoured to win Congress now and possibly the presidency then, while worry about AI taking jobs keeps growing. I put the five-year chance near one in three. A visible AI-driven jump in unemployment would most raise it.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.263
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.301
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.322
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W104",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No such law exists. Congress's bipartisan bills on AI job losses only fund studies, and the President dismisses AI fears, so the next two years look unlikely. The best chance comes after the 2028 election, especially if Democrats win full control and act on bills that already propose wage insurance for workers hurt by AI. The biggest swing factor is whether AI visibly pushes up unemployment before then.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.18
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.291
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}