{
  "question_id": "W177",
  "slug": "us-participation-below-55-percent",
  "title": "US labour-force participation falls below 55%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W177",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001799
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002797
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006284
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008769
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011742
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015695
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.020617
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049672
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069524
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.092641
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W177",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003695
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005488
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007974
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.020521
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026593
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041913
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.060979
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071778
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083381
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095755
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W177",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0219
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W177",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The share of Americans working or looking for work is 61.8% and would have to fall about 7 points to go below 55%. That is more than twice the biggest five-year drop in nearly 80 years of records, and twice the pandemic plunge. Only an extreme shock, such as artificial intelligence pushing huge numbers of people out of work or a far worse pandemic, could do it. A steep, lasting fall among working-age adults would most change this view.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0263
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W177",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of YES at about 2% by the end of 2031. The September 2026 participation rate was 61.8%. Getting below 55% means a drop more than twice the largest five-year fall in 78 years of records, ending 3 points under the all-time low of 58.1%. Aging alone only gets the rate to about 60.5% by 2031. The development that would most raise this forecast is evidence that AI is pushing millions of people out of the workforce.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}