{
  "question_id": "W147",
  "slug": "us-or-china-accuses-other-of-cheating",
  "title": "The US or China accuses the other of violating an AI agreement",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W147",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count concrete commitments to hold intergovernmental AI dialogue as well as substantive nonbinding AI commitments, but require an affirmative allegation of breach tied to an identifiable AI obligation rather than a generic appeal to honor leaders’ consensus.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0415
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0626
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0851
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1598
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1867
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2411
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2918
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3391
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3616
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3833
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4441
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.463
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W147",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An express official accusation of failure to honor an agreed AI dialogue or establish an AI-incident channel can qualify, but mere suspension of talks, general criticism, or failure to report an incident without an established reporting obligation cannot.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0474
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0664
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0851
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2376
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2605
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2827
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4204
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W147",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A generic Chinese or US accusation of violating 'the important consensus of the two heads of state' counts only if the statement or its official context identifies the AI-specific commitment (e.g., the AI/SI Dialogue, the AI incident channel, or the heads-of-state consensus on AI); exhortations to 'implement the consensus' do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.165
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W147",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Washington and Beijing agreed in September 2026 to hold artificial intelligence talks and create an incident hotline, but such procedural promises are hard to \"break\", and neither government has ever formally accused the other of violating an artificial intelligence commitment, so I put the five-year chance near one in four. The development that would most raise it is concrete American sanctions on Chinese artificial intelligence labs, which Beijing insists should be handled through the leaders' agreed dialogue.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.25
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.258
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}