{
  "question_id": "W132",
  "slug": "us-military-spending-6-percent-of-gdp",
  "title": "US military spending reaches 6% of GDP",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W132",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012701
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012899
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013688
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03736
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037745
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038418
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072723
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073372
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.074299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11684
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.117723
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W132",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014808
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015301
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015793
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045319
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045606
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046751
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.085834
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0862
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086839
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.087661
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.129629
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.130064
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W132",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0353
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0357
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W132",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "By SIPRI's measure the US spends about 3.1% of its economy on the military. Reaching 6% would mean nearly doubling that share, which has happened only once, in the Korean War. Even the administration's $1.5 trillion request would bring it to only about 4.5%. A major war with China, or possibly Russia, is the main way it could happen in time, so a US–China war over Taiwan would change this forecast most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0378
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W132",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The United States would need to roughly double its military spending relative to its economy to reach 6%. SIPRI's latest figure is 3.1%, the money actually spent in 2026 points to about the same again, and even the full budget request would only lift it to around 4% by 2028. Only a major, sustained war, most plausibly with China, could plausibly do it within the window. Such a war would be the development that most changes this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0329
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}