{
  "question_id": "W133",
  "slug": "us-military-spending-10-percent-of-gdp",
  "title": "US military spending reaches 10% of GDP",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W133",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006391
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00649
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006689
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015629
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015776
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015924
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029694
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W133",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011421
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011569
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011668
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023528
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02387
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039632
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039824
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W133",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "SIPRI's workbook stores shares as fractions (e.g., 0.0312 for 3.1%), so the threshold is read as a database value of at least 0.10; only SIPRI's annual late-April database release (and the June Yearbook repeating it) is treated as a realistic publication vehicle, making FY2026-FY2030 the eligible years that can be published by end-2031.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W133",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The research institute's latest figure puts American military spending at about 3.1% of the economy. Reaching 10% would take three to four times today's spending, last seen in the 1950s around the Korean War. Even the largest budget now proposed would be under 5%. The small remaining chance, about 1% by 2031, comes almost entirely from a long war with China; such a war breaking out would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00345
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00723
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00738
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00758
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00778
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01194
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}