{
  "question_id": "W62",
  "slug": "us-merges-labs-into-one-project",
  "title": "The US combines labs' frontier work into one government project",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W62",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0356
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0549
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0757
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0988
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1647
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1856
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2728
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2874
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.34
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3519
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W62",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0548
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0737
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0923
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.13
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1704
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1911
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2503
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2873
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.356
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W62",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only a federal announcement of one integrated frontier-model development effort with a shared technical plan, combining work from two or more covered developers under government authority, counts; nationalization of a single lab, equity stakes, oversight committees, DPA-style pacing agreements where labs keep separate programs, and Genesis Mission science-model projects do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W62",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put this at about 9% by the end of 2031 and well under 1% this year. President Trump has explicitly ruled out nationalizing the AI labs and backs voluntary self-policing. The Pentagon deliberately buys from several competing companies, and the new White House AI task force says private industry will stay in charge. The development that would most change this forecast is a race to superintelligence or a war with China that pushes Washington toward a wartime-style national project.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W62",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The President has said no to nationalizing AI companies. His administration relies on voluntary industry pledges, a review task force, and protecting competition, and no company or lawmaker is proposing to merge rival labs' work under government control. That puts a combined government-run AI project at about 7% over five years. The development that would most change this is a perceived race with China near superhuman AI, or a disastrous AI incident, pushing the government to take over development.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0284
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0414
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0487
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0552
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0583
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0614
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0643
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0671
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0698
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}