{
  "question_id": "W247",
  "slug": "us-life-expectancy-82",
  "title": "US life expectancy reaches 82",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W247",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002498
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002747
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003495
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005986
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.010956
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011946
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024761
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.040326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049923
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W247",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002498
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002996
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003993
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006981
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.010954
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012437
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02623
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037916
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042726
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059957
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W247",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only NCHS total-population (both sexes, all races) period life expectancy at birth for calendar year 2026 or later counts; female, Hispanic, Asian or other subgroup values of 82+ are excluded.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W247",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Americans' life expectancy was 79.0 years in 2024 and probably about 79.5 in 2025. Reaching 82.0 for any year through 2030, the last year whose figure could be published by 2031, would take faster sustained gains than in any comparable stretch since 1950. Official projections don't expect that level until the 2050s, so I put the chance below 1%. What would most change this is a sudden, lasting collapse in death rates across all ages, such as a medical breakthrough rolled out nationwide.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W247",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "US life expectancy was 79.0 years in 2024. It is probably about 79.4 for 2025 and near 80 for 2026. Reaching 82.0 by 2030, the last year likely to be published before 2032, would need gains of about half a year every year. That is faster than any sustained stretch since 1950 outside pandemic rebounds, so the chance is well under 1%. An official 2026 figure well above expectations would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00665
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}