{
  "question_id": "W313",
  "slug": "us-licenses-open-weight-publication",
  "title": "The US requires a licence to publish frontier model weights openly",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W313",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-30",
      "method": "wide-v3.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-30",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Washington is moving away from requiring approval before downloadable AI models are released. The current administration exempted them from its review process, its June order rules out licensing, and no bill in Congress would impose it. The main chance comes after 2028, if a new administration or Congress builds an approval system that covers such releases. A serious attack traced to a downloadable model would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0476
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0564
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0649
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0729
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0806
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0882
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0955
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}