{
  "question_id": "W179",
  "slug": "us-labor-share-below-50-percent",
  "title": "The US labour share falls below 50%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W179",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0415
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1644
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2506
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2911
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3629
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3947
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4503
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4745
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4976
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5587
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5773
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W179",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0568
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0794
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1598
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1884
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2774
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3863
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.457
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W179",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Any BLS publication dated on/after 2026-09-16 (including revisions such as those incorporating BEA annual/comprehensive updates) that displays the nonfarm business all-workers labor share at 49.9% or lower for any quarter from 2026Q3 onward counts as YES; a displayed 50.0% does not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.28
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.389
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W179",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Workers' share of business output hit a record low of 52.8% in spring 2026. Newly revised national accounts suggest it will be restated near 53.3%, so it must fall more than three more points to go below 50%. Falls that large within five years have mostly followed recessions. I put the chance at about one in five by late 2031, and near zero for the next year. A recession followed by a jobless recovery driven by artificial intelligence would raise it most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.205
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W179",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of a reading below 50% at about 47% by end-2031, but under 1% through 2027 and about 18% by end-2028. The share needs a further 5% relative drop from about 52.7%, which is rare from a record low. Most of the chance comes from the government's planned 2028 overhaul of how it measures the economy, which would count companies' in-house data as investment and push the measured share down by about 2–3%. Confirmation or delay of that change would move this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.24
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.31
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.33
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.35
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.447
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.47
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}