{
  "question_id": "W180",
  "slug": "us-labor-share-below-40-percent",
  "title": "The US labour share falls below 40%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W180",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007478
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010952
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015402
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.020818
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026693
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039788
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054614
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071086
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W180",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000402
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000737
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004948
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014254
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031979
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039762
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048448
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068424
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079659
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W180",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Resolution uses BLS's published percentage-level nonfarm business all-worker labor share (stated in the Productivity and Costs release and in the 'Percentage' series of labor-productivity-major-sectors.xlsx, one decimal), requiring a value of 39.9 or lower for a quarter from 2026 Q3 onward, published by each horizon.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0261
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0296
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W180",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Workers' share of business output is at a record low of 52.8%, but falling below 40% by the latest data released before the end of 2031 would take a drop about three times larger than the worst five-year decline since 1947. Even experts who expect rapid AI progress forecast around 50% by 2030. Only an extreme, fast AI-driven displacement of workers could get there. Quarterly drops of one to two points a quarter in 2027–28 would raise this sharply.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0196
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W180",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Workers' share of business output is at a record low of 52.8%. Falling below 40% would take a drop of about a quarter within five years, roughly three times the steepest five-year fall since 1947. Only an extreme boom driven by artificial intelligence, with output soaring while pay stagnates, could plausibly get there by 2031. The forecast would rise most on signs of that: near double-digit growth, with the share falling several points a year.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0161
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}