{
  "question_id": "W163",
  "slug": "us-gdp-growth-above-5-percent",
  "title": "Four-quarter US GDP growth above 5%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W163",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0471
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0633
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0811
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1404
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1611
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2465
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2684
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2903
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3123
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W163",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0548
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0708
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0875
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1447
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1644
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1853
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2518
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2982
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3228
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W163",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Any BEA vintage of Table 1.1.11 line 1 for a quarter from Q3 2026 onward counts, from its publication date; nothing eligible can be published by 2026-09-30 because the Q3 2026 advance estimate is due Oct 29, 2026.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0284
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0506
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0592
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0676
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0862
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0962
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1169
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W163",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "US economic output is up about 2.2% from a year earlier. A reading above 5% hasn't happened since 2000 except in the rebound after the pandemic, and forecasters expect roughly 2% growth through 2031. A yes would most likely need an AI-driven productivity boom or a sharp recession followed by a fast rebound, so I put it at about 14% by the end of 2031. Clear evidence that AI is sharply raising measured output and productivity would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0357
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0435
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0516
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0601
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0691
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0784
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0981
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1284
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1384
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W163",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "US economic growth is running near 2% a year, and since 1985 output has grown more than 5% in a year only in the 2000 tech boom and the post-COVID rebound. Weak labour-force growth, rising interest rates and expensive oil make that unlikely soon. Most of the roughly 16% five-year chance comes from artificial intelligence lifting growth sharply around 2029–2031. The clearest sign would be measured productivity and growth clearly speeding up over the next two years.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.161
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}