{
  "question_id": "W165",
  "slug": "us-gdp-growth-above-30-percent",
  "title": "Four-quarter US GDP growth above 30%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W165",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007848
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013843
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021832
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043772
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058707
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0076601
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0098432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0123186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0150841
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0182359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0217702
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0256831
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0299701
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0346263
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W165",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001549
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002448
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003745
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005538
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007924
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.010901
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014461
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018601
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028586
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034414
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.040787
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047693
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W165",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only quarters ending after 2026-09-16 (2026Q3 onward) count, so the last quarter publishable by the final horizon is 2031Q2 (advance estimate ~late July 2031); the series is BEA Table 1.1.11 line 1 at BEA's one-decimal precision.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00501
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00887
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01469
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01847
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W165",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "US output has never grown even close to 30% in a year: the record is about 19%, in 1942. Growth is about 2–3% now, and even forecasts of a very rapid AI transformation mostly put explosive growth after 2031. I put the chance at under 1% before 2030 and about 2.6% by end-2031. The biggest change would come if AI were fully automating its own research by 2027–28 and US growth then jumped into double digits.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0264
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W165",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of US economic output growing more than 30% in a year by late 2031 at about 3%. In quarterly records since 1948, growth has never topped about 13% in a year, and it is running around 2% now. Getting to 30% would need artificial intelligence to remake the whole economy within a few years, which even AI companies' most extreme scenarios do not show. Clear evidence that AI is fully automating its own research, followed by a fast build-out of robots and factories, would raise my estimate most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0311
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}