{
  "question_id": "W164",
  "slug": "us-gdp-growth-above-10-percent",
  "title": "Four-quarter US GDP growth above 10%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W164",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002997
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005988
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009965
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014915
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.020825
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035458
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.044139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.100135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.113633
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.127815
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.142642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.158075
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W164",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002498
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004992
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008475
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012936
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.040288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059386
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.070203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081826
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.094221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.107355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.121191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.135691
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.150817
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W164",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0552
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0618
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0688
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W164",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "US output has grown more than 10% in a year only during the Korean War buildup and the 2021 rebound from pandemic lockdowns. It is now growing about 2%. A yes would most likely need an AI-driven boom by 2031 far beyond what economists expect, or a sudden collapse followed by a fast recovery. Clear signs that AI is pushing measured growth toward 5% or more would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0479
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0536
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0655
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0716
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W164",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "US output is growing about 2% a year, and outside wartime the economy has topped 10% growth over four quarters only once, during the 2021 rebound from the pandemic. Getting there by 2031 would take either an unprecedented boom driven by artificial intelligence or a sudden collapse followed by a fast recovery. I put the combined chance at about 7%. The development that would move this most is official figures showing growth clearly speeding up toward 5–7%.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0451
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0515
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0583
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0656
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0732
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}