{
  "question_id": "W173",
  "slug": "us-federal-budget-surplus",
  "title": "The US runs a federal budget surplus",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W173",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004538
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004548
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004558
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004568
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016513
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016562
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016611
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01666
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041388
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W173",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034747
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034756
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034766
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034776
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W173",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Each fiscal year's completed result first appears in the September MTS released in mid-October, so only FY2026–FY2030 can resolve within the window (FY2031's result is published after 2031-09-30), and YES risk is concentrated in the December quarter-ends.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W173",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The federal government just ended fiscal 2026 about $2 trillion short, around 6% of the economy, and official projections show similar or bigger gaps through 2031. Rising interest costs and new spending promises push the same way. Going from there to a surplus within five years has never happened in peacetime; the closest case, in the 1990s, took longer from a smaller gap. The main thing that would change this is an artificial-intelligence-driven boom that made the economy far bigger than expected by 2030.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W173",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of a full-year surplus being reported by the end of 2031 at about 1%. The fiscal year that just ended had a deficit of about $2 trillion, more than 6% of the economy, and official projections show deficits that size every year through 2036. In peacetime, the US has never closed a gap this large within five years. An AI-driven boom far bigger than economists expect would be the main thing to change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0115
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}