{
  "question_id": "W212",
  "slug": "us-electricity-generation-up-10-percent",
  "title": "US electricity generation grows 10% in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W212",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002749
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002849
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002899
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012614
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028703
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028849
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052678
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053246
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W212",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002719
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002769
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002919
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01289
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012988
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056402
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W212",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only annual utility-scale totals for completed calendar years 2026 or later, compared with the immediately preceding year from the same EPM Table 1.1 or Data Browser vintage, count; year Y's annual total first appears in the late-February EPM of year Y+1.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W212",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "American electricity generation has grown only 2 to 3 percent a year recently and is up about 2 percent so far in 2026. Government forecasters expect similar growth in 2027. A one-year jump of 10 percent last happened in 1959 and would need demand growth several times larger than even the most aggressive data-center forecasts. The biggest change would come from a sudden, unprecedented data-center boom, or a catastrophic one-year collapse followed by a rebound.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W212",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "US electricity generation grew about 2.8% in 2025, and EIA expects about 2.6% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. A 10% jump in one year has not happened since 1959, and even the most aggressive data-centre forecasts imply under 4% a year. I put the chance of a qualifying year by 2031 at well under 1%. The thing that would most change this is evidence of data-centre construction several times faster than today's pace by 2029–2030.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}