{
  "question_id": "W162",
  "slug": "us-drops-chip-export-licences-for-china",
  "title": "The US drops export licences for advanced chips to China",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W162",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "The fixed technical class includes future chip models satisfying the September 16, 2026 parameters, so removing licences only for then-existing models or older performance bands does not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0354
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0422
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0594
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0725
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0837
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0928
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1425
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1537
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1647
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W162",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "The fixed September 16, 2026 technical class includes later chips meeting those specifications, not merely models available on that date, so retaining individual licensing for a higher-performance subset prevents YES.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01542
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02524
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04842
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05794
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06736
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08592
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09506
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.10411
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.13247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.15317
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W162",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of this happening by the end of 2031 at about 3%. Washington still requires a licence for every advanced AI chip sold to China, and the loosest policy so far is case-by-case licensing for older chips like Nvidia's H200, with a 25% cut for the government. Neither government put chip controls on the table at the September summit, Nvidia is not asking for full repeal, and Congress is moving to write licensing into law. A sweeping US–China deal that suspends all chip licensing is what would change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W162",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of a YES by the end of 2031 at about 2%. The United States still requires licences for advanced AI chips going to China, and policy is getting stricter. Even the most permissive move so far, allowing H200-class chips, kept licensing in place and kept the top chips banned. Congress is also trying to write the licence requirement into law. The biggest change would be a broad Trump–Xi deal that explicitly ends chip controls.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0197
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}