{
  "question_id": "W170",
  "slug": "us-deflation-below-minus-3-percent",
  "title": "US consumer prices fall more than 3% in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W170",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001849
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004844
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.010806
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029935
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03333
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036714
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.040085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.043445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054878
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W170",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004494
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006983
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009466
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011942
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016876
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019825
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022766
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02862
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031535
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.040225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.043584
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046931
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.050267
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W170",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W170",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 1% over five years. US consumer prices are rising 3.4% a year, and they have not fallen more than 3% over a year since 1938. The 2008–09 crisis, with a collapse in oil prices, reached only a 2.1% fall. Getting below 3% would take a record energy crash plus falling rents and service prices. The development that would most raise my estimate is a deep recession in which rents and service prices start to fall.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W170",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "U.S. consumer prices have not fallen more than 3% in a year since 1938. Even the 2008–09 financial crisis, with a record collapse in energy prices, produced only a 2.1% decline. Prices are now rising about 3.5% a year during an oil shock, and rents are sticky, so this would take a deep depression or an unprecedented upheaval. The development that would most change this forecast is a sudden end to the Iran war followed by a severe recession with falling rents.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0119
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}