{
  "question_id": "W256",
  "slug": "us-college-enrolment-down-50-percent",
  "title": "US college enrolment falls 50%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W256",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000305
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000313
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001376
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003872
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003932
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003962
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003992
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007976
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008125
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W256",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 1e-7
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0000011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0000511
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0000521
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0000531
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0000541
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013587
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013837
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039549
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0040047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0040545
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0090343
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0091333
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0092324
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W256",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only the Research Center's January Final Fall Enrollment Trends reports (or official corrections) for fall 2026–fall 2030, published roughly Jan 2027–Jan 2031, can qualify; preliminary November estimates are excluded, so hazard is concentrated in Q1 quarters.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00363
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00369
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W256",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put this at about 0.3% over five years. The worst drop in US college enrollment on record, during World War II, was about 23%, and current numbers are steady or rising: about 19.4 million in fall 2025, with many colleges reporting records this fall. Halving would take an unprecedented collapse. The development that would most change this forecast is a sudden, sustained fall in new enrollments driven by artificial intelligence or a national catastrophe.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00331
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00334
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W256",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "College enrollment in America has never fallen by half in any five-year stretch. The worst drops on record were about 14 percent over two years after World War II and 2.5 percent in the first pandemic fall. Enrollment is growing now, and many universities report record numbers this fall. A yes would take a society-wide catastrophe, or a sudden collapse in college-going that the Clearinghouse still went on to report. Signs of such a collapse would change this forecast most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}