{
  "question_id": "W255",
  "slug": "us-college-enrolment-down-30-percent",
  "title": "US college enrolment falls 30%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W255",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003696
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003795
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010758
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010857
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.010955
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015406
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022791
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022937
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028457
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037686
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037879
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W255",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001724
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001744
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001764
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003761
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011794
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034955
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035051
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W255",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only the Clearinghouse's Final Fall (January) and Final Spring (June) national totals for fall 2026 onward count, each compared with the fall 2025 total (so a spring term must be ≤ about 13.6M, roughly 27% below spring 2026's 18.6M); preliminary reports and restatements of pre-opening terms do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W255",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "US college enrollment would have to fall about 30% from 19.4 million to roughly 13.6 million within five years. It is currently rising: spring 2026 was up 1%, and fall 2026 looks flat. The steepest drop on record, in World War Two, was about 23%, so I put the chance near half a percent. What would most change this is an AI-driven collapse in the value of degrees that empties several freshman classes before 2030.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00371
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00451
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00456
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00461
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W255",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "A 30% fall in US college enrolment, to about 13.6 million from 19.4 million in fall 2025, would be unprecedented. Even World War Two cut enrolment by only about 23%, and the latest national figures show about 1% growth. Fall 2026 looks roughly flat so far. Only full-term final reports count, published each January and June. The main risk is an extreme artificial-intelligence shock that makes degrees seem worthless by 2029–2031.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}