{
  "question_id": "W254",
  "slug": "us-college-enrolment-down-15-percent",
  "title": "US college enrolment falls 15%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W254",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003908
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003988
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014732
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014879
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014978
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036435
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036627
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037494
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.070684
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.070963
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W254",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003797
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003847
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015396
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015494
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038908
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03934
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.040493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076954
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.077323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.077508
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W254",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only NSC Final Fall Enrollment Trends reports (or official corrections) for fall 2026 through fall 2030 can qualify; B taken as the fall 2025 final total (~19.41M per appendix sum), threshold ~16.50M; preliminary November reports excluded.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W254",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "For this to happen, US college enrollment would need to fall by about 2.9 million students, roughly 15%, within five years. That has never happened in nearly 80 years of national records; the worst recent five-year drop was about 9%, including the pandemic, and enrollment is still edging up. The biggest thing that could change this is a sudden, broad collapse in college-going, such as from rapid AI-driven job upheaval or sweeping cuts to federal student aid.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0196
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W254",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "US college enrolment was about 19.4 million in fall 2025 and is still rising slightly; early fall 2026 reports look roughly flat. Hitting this question would take about 2.9 million fewer students within five years. Since the late 1940s, total enrolment has never fallen more than about 14% over five years; that low came as the post-World War II veterans left and the Korean War draft began. A sudden shock that sharply cuts new enrolment would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0187
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}