{
  "question_id": "W40",
  "slug": "us-china-verify-each-others-model-specs",
  "title": "The US and China verify each other's AI follows an agreed specification",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W40",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I allow a limited, testable behavioral or operational specification, including confidential annexes and remote testing, but require each government's express affirmation that its national highest-capability tier—not merely a selected sample—passed authorized external verification.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
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        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002598
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004593
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01402
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018457
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028736
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034564
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.040839
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047553
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054697
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.062259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078598
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.087351
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.096478
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.105965
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.115799
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W40",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00549
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00798
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01983
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02571
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04891
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05842
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06784
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07809
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08915
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12422
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1356
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W40",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Read strictly: both governments must officially affirm completed inspections by the other country's authorized inspectors or a jointly authorized international body with an affirmative conformity finding for their national top-tier AI systems against a jointly accepted written behavioral/operational specification; dialogues, red-line declarations, incident channels, or compute/chip-only verification do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0246
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W40",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The United States and China have only agreed to hold talks on advanced AI and set up an incident hotline. There is no shared rulebook or inspection body, and both governments refuse to slow down or open their systems to the other. Getting to agreed rules, finished inspections and both governments confirming the results within five years would be unprecedented. A major AI disaster that forced a treaty with inspections would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W40",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "This is very unlikely. The United States and China have only just started an AI dialogue and agreed to set up an incident hotline. There is no shared rulebook and no agreed inspection body, and the US president has openly refused to \"open up\" American AI to China. Even after a deal, negotiating it, completing inspections and getting both governments to confirm the results would take years. A major AI disaster, or a new US administration in 2029 pursuing a verifiable treaty that China accepts, would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0284
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0351
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0386
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}