{
  "question_id": "W144",
  "slug": "us-china-verification-agreement",
  "title": "The US and China sign an AI agreement with chip or datacentre verification",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W144",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0586
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0755
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0922
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1281
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1618
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1803
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2584
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2777
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2965
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.35
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W144",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A signed AI-compute export or access agreement can qualify even if narrow or nonbinding and verified only by domestic inspectors; existing unilateral export controls and generic end-use arrangements do not qualify without an expressly AI-related signed instrument and qualifying public verification provisions.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0638
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0788
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0935
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1605
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1772
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1978
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2565
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2766
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2961
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3151
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W144",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counted only signed US–PRC (bilateral or multilateral) instruments whose officially published text/readout explicitly provides for verification via on-chip mechanisms or on-site datacentre inspections; dialogues, incident channels, and commitments merely to study/develop verification do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0373
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0426
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0484
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0543
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0604
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0668
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0732
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0795
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W144",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of a signed US–China AI agreement with chip-based checks or datacentre inspections at about 8% by the end of 2031, and near zero this year. Both governments reject limits today, the two countries have never signed an arms-control deal, and verification tools are still immature. The best hope is a new US administration after 2029. What would most change this: a serious AI disaster that pushes both sides to accept checks quickly.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0263
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0535
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0581
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0626
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0671
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0716
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W144",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The US and China only agreed in September 2026 to talk about artificial intelligence and to set up an incident hotline. President Trump openly rejects any constraining AI deal with China, and China rejects proposals to slow AI. Checking compliance through chip-based tracking or datacentre inspections is far beyond anything on the table. The likeliest route is a new US administration negotiating after 2029. A major AI disaster that pushed both leaders toward checkable limits would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}